To rule out systemic preexisting time trends which could need undermined our difference-in-differences approach, we projected an вЂњevent studyвЂќ regression for the aftereffect of Medicaid expansion in the wide range of loans. This tested the legitimacy of y our presumption that payday borrowing could have have similar styles in expansion and nonexpansion counties if none regarding the counties have expanded Medicaid. The regression included a set impact for almost any county, an effect that is fixed on a monthly basis, and indicators for four six-month durations before Medicaid expansion and three six-month durations after expansion (see Appendix display A8). 16
Furthermore, although we discover no proof this, we’re able to perhaps perhaps perhaps not rule out of the probability that state- or county-level alterations in the legislation (or enforcement of laws) of pay day loans or more markets adjustment may have took place in Ca when you look at the duration 2010вЂ“14. Nevertheless, the appropriateness was tested by us of our approach in a number of methods. First, we stratified our products by age bracket (men young or more than age sixty-five): Those who work in younger team is beneficiaries of this Medicaid expansion, while those who work in the older team will never, because they could be entitled to Medicare. 2nd, we analyzed exactly how alterations in payday financing diverse because of the share of uninsured someone in the county before expansion: we might be prepared to see a larger decrease in payday financing in areas with greater stocks compared to areas with reduced shares. Final, we carried out an вЂњevent studyвЂќ regression, described above, to assess any time that is preexisting in payday financing. Our extra methodology supplied reassuring proof that our findings are owing to the Medicaid expansion.
Appendix Exhibit A7 presents the total outcomes of our sensitiveness analyses for borrowers more than age sixty-five
As noted above, we examined loan that is payday stratified for individuals in that age bracket also performing a triple-difference review of county-month-age (younger or over the age of age sixty-five). We discovered little but increases that are significant payday amount among the list of older borrowers. As soon as we put those borrowers as one more within-state control group, we have triple-difference quotes that have been approximately comparable, though somewhat bigger payday cash advance Butterfield MN in magnitude, compared to difference-in-differences quotes in display 1. This suggests that our main estimates might be slight underestimates of the effects of Medicaid expansion on payday loan volume to the extent that the effects on the older population captured unobserved, latent trends in expansion counties.
As stated above, the assumption that is key the difference-in-differences framework by which we relied is the fact that CaliforniaвЂ™s expansion counties and all sorts of of this nonexpansion counties might have shown comparable styles within the lack of the expansion. That presumption will be violated, as an example, if Ca have skilled a job-market that is uniquely robust through the learn duration. Having said that, our company is alert to no proof that the job-market recovery in Ca had been distinct from the data recovery in more states in a manner that would impact borrowing that is payday. But, most crucial, Appendix Exhibit A8 shows the right time styles in amounts of loans both before and following the expansion. 16 Reassuringly, the display implies that there have been no observable differences when considering future expanding and nonexpanding counties in preexisting time styles, which validates the parallel-trends assumption that underlies our difference-in-differences approach. Especially, into the twenty-four months before Medicaid expansion, we observed no preexisting variations into the quantity of payday advances which could confound the estimated impact of Medicaid expansion once we later on contrasted teams. We consequently receive no evidence that the parallel trends assumption is violated. In addition, the Appendix display shows that a negative aftereffect of the Medicaid expansions in the variety of loans started roughly 6 months after expansion, which looks legitimate considering that medical specifications and medical bills accumulate gradually.